Unlike in previous years, the Gulf of Mexico has not been tropically active this year like in other coastal areas, such as along the Atlantic seaboard. In August, Hurricane Idalia strengthened in the eastern Gulf of Mexico before making landfall along Florida’s Gulf Coast as a major Category 3 hurricane. Even residents in the Carolinas (pictured) were forced to prepare for that storm, as well. File Photo by Richard Ellis/UPI | License Photo
A double-whammy of tropical moisture is expected to bring drenching rainfall to the Gulf Coast this week, following a rather quiet spell in that part of the Atlantic basin.
Unlike in previous years, the Gulf of Mexico has not been the hot spot of tropical activity for much of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Of the season’s 17 named tropical storms, only three have passed through the waters of the Gulf. Advertisement
The first named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Arlene, navigated the eastern part of the Gulf in early June, followed by Tropical Storm Harold in mid-August, which made landfall in southern Texas. Most recently, Hurricane Idalia strengthened in the eastern Gulf of Mexico in late August, making landfall along Florida’s Gulf Coast as a major Category 3 hurricane.
Now, AccuWeather forecasters warn that the Atlantic basin trend could change this week, shifting focus from the waters of the Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico. Advertisement
“Strengthening wind shear over the western Gulf of Mexico will limit how much time the tropical low has to get more organized,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said.
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AccuWeather hurricane experts have been monitoring this area for over a week, and on Monday morning they upped the risk of tropical development to a medium chance in the western Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday. Warm waters could help a new tropical depression brew before winds become too disruptive for the tropical low to strengthen.
“Whether or not an organized tropical system develops, many of the impacts will remain the same,” DaSilva explained.
As the tropical system pulls northeastward into midweek, it’ll bring waves of tropical moisture stemming from the Gulf of Mexico and the East Pacific, including from Tropical Storm Lidia.
The double source of tropical moisture will help fuel an area of heavy rainfall and bring about flooding concerns.
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Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected all along the Gulf coast from Texas to the southern tip of Florida. The storm’s track will largely determine the location of the heaviest rain but will most likely target the Gulf Coast’s central and eastern parts into Thursday.
Even though the storm is moving rather quickly, it can bring any location rounds of heavier downpours for at least 12 hours. Advertisement
Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are expected to be common from the Texas-Louisiana border to South Carolina and northern Florida, with more isolated rain totals of 3 or 4 inches. Should the tropical low track closer to the coast, it may bring even higher rain amounts.
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The anticipated high rainfall totals in combination with the recently dry conditions across parts of the Gulf Coast raise the concerns for flooding. The dry ground may be unable to absorb any heavier doses of rain, leading to runoff and ponding on roadways.
Portions of Texas and Louisiana continue to feel the weight of a substantial drought. A staggering 58 of the state of Louisiana is in exceptional drought, the highest drought category, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Furthermore, 85 of the state is experiencing one of the top two highest drought categories.
The drought in this area of the country has, in part, been contributing to the low river levels along the Lower Mississippi River.
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The rainfall in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi may help the drought but is unlikely to assist much with low water levels, with the rain falling too far south. However, DaSilva mentioned it could help to improve the recent saltwater intrusion at the mouth of the Mississippi River. Advertisement
This week, another storm moving across the nation’s midsection has a better chance of putting a small dent in the record-challenging low river levels.
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